Oscar Predictions

The Oscars are tomorrow night, and Hugh Jackman is hosting. I can't wait. I used the Boston Globe's technique for predictions (ie should win, will win, shouldn't be here). Many of the supposed Oscar-worthy movies released at the end of 2008 underwhelmed me with only a few movies really standing out. Without further ado, here are my predictions.

Best Picture:
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Reader
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire-the right movie at the right time. A real underdog story in terms of the story itself, and the buzz that slowly built around it.
Shouldn't Be Here: The Reader and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button-The Reader was an average movie, but since it fits the Oscar prototype it gets nominated. Benjamin Button was a disappointment. I didn't feel invested in the story or the relationship between Brad and Cate. I really wanted to like it.
Where is this Movie?: The Dark Knight was amazing. Way better than The Reader. Why isn't it here?

PS I didn't see Frost/Nixon.

Best Actress:
Kate Winslet-The Reader
Melissa Leo-Frozen River
Meryl Streep-Doubt
Anne Hathaway-Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie-Changeling

Will Win: Kate Winslet-she doesn't deserve the Oscar for this movie.
Should Win: I haven't seen Frozen River, but I've heard great things about Melissa Leo's performance so I'll go with her.
Shouldn't Be Here: This category is kind of mess. Doubt was Oscar-bait from the beginning so Meryl's nod was a shoo-in. Anne Hathaway was good, but she has more chances to show her chops. Kate Winslet was good as well, but the performance doesn't warrant a nod.
Where's this Actress?: I still haven't seen Happy-Go-Lucky, but I heard Sally Hawkins was superb in it. She was terrific in Woody Allen's Cassandra's Dream.

Best Actor:
Sean Penn-Milk
Mickey Rourke-The Wrestler
Brad Pitt-Curious Case
Frank Langella-Frost/Nixon
Richard Jenkins-The Visitor

Will Win: Mickey Rourke
Should Win: Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke
Shouldn't be Here: Brad Pitt-there wasn't much to his performance
This category makes somewhat more sense than Best Actress. I'm torn between Rourke and Penn. Penn became Harvey Milk and blew me away. Rourke has the comeback story though. Ultimately, Sean Penn should win I think.

Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz-Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Marisa Tomei-The Wrestler
Amy Adams-Doubt
Viola Davis-Doubt
Taraji P. Henson-Curious Case

This category is extremely strong filled with awesome performances.
Will Win: Penelope Cruz-She was the best part of Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Should Win: Amy Adams or Marisa Tomei
Shouldn't be Here: Maybe Taraji

Amy Adams managed to play innocent and naive again in Doubt, but somehow made it fresh. Marisa Tomei was moving and lovable as the stripper who stole Rourke's heart.

Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin-Milk
Robert Downey Jr.-Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger-Dark Knight
Michael Shannon-Revolutionary Road
Philip Seymour Hoffman-Doubt

Will Win: Heath Ledger
Should Win: Heath Ledger
Shouldn't Be Here: Josh Brolin

Ledger gave us an iconic and delightfully twisted performance that deserves this honor. Downey Jr. was comically ruthless in Tropic Thunder and Hoffman turned himself into another interesting person. Josh Brolin's performance didn't make me sit up and notice him. He was good just not out of this world like his fellow nominees.

Best Director:
Danny Boyle-Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry-The Reader
Gus Van Sant-Milk
Ron Howard-Frost/Nixon
David Fincher-Curious Case

Will Win: Danny Boyle
Should Win: Danny Boyle-his movie was alive
Shouldn't Be here: Stephen Daldry
Where is this Director?: Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight. Outstanding vision for an epic movie.

Boyle made Slumdog a treat for the senses. Curious Case was a beauty to look at, but there wasn't much to it. I don't understand Daldry's nod. There wasn't really any distinctive vision or style in The Reader to me at least. Milk was presented as a powerful and moving, but somewhat standard biopic.

Those are my predictions. We'll see what happens. Tomorrow night at 8 on ABC!